Tier 2 — Warranted Analytics
Cash-paying performance warranty backed by Ensuro — if the engine is wrong beyond tolerance, you get paid.
Same calibrated probability outputs as Tier 1, plus a cash-paying performance warranty backed by Ensuro's capital pool. This is the structural differentiator — no competitor in the weather intelligence space offers anything like it.
How It Works
- Service Metrics are designated as "Warranty-Eligible" in the Statement of Work
- Variance Thresholds define the acceptable deviation between engine predictions and observed weather
- If the engine's predictions deviate from actual beyond the agreed threshold — verified against a pre-agreed independent Data Source — the client receives a cash payment
- The warranty payout is underwritten by Ensuro — structurally, it's a parametric policy written through the Cliff Horizon Risk Module
Tier 2 pays cash, not service credits. This is a financial warranty, not a SaaS refund. The payout is underwritten by Ensuro's USDC capital pool, not Cliff Horizon's balance sheet.
Why Cash, Not Credits
A service credit says: "We're sorry we were wrong — here's a discount on next month."
A cash warranty says: "We're so confident in our calibration that if we're wrong beyond the agreed tolerance, you get paid — in real money."
The cash warranty is economically meaningful. It converts weather forecast accuracy from an unverifiable marketing claim into a financial commitment. For the client, it also provides partial offset against the weather-driven costs they actually incurred.
Pricing
Tier 2 carries a higher subscription fee than Tier 1. The premium covers:
- Ensuro's capital cost — the cost of locking solvency capital against the warranty exposure
- Cliff Horizon's risk partner commission — earned on each warranty policy
- Pure premium — the expected loss (payout × probability of breach × margin of conservatism)
The warranty premium is priced using the same engine that powers the analytics — the calibrated probability of exceeding the Variance Threshold feeds directly into Ensuro's premium decomposition formula.
Risk Architecture
| Component | Who Bears It |
|---|---|
| Warranty payout capital | Ensuro's USDC pool |
| Pricing accuracy risk | Reflected in premium — if the engine miscalibrates, Ensuro's pool takes the loss |
| Balance sheet exposure | Zero for Cliff Horizon — Ensuro provides all underwriting capital |
| Regulatory umbrella | Ensuro (BMA-licensed) — the warranty falls under Ensuro's regulatory framework |
Cliff Horizon earns the analytics subscription fee plus a risk partner commission. It does not hold reserves against warranty claims.
Warranty Framework (MSA Section 5)
The warranty is governed by the Limited Performance Warranty section of the Master Services Agreement:
- Warranty-Eligible Services — specifically designated in the SOW
- Service Metrics — the measurable outputs subject to warranty (e.g., P(rainfall > threshold) accuracy)
- Variance Thresholds — the tolerance band (e.g., ±5% calibration deviation)
- Data Sources — the independent third-party data used to verify outcomes (NWS, SatSure, or other agreed oracle)
- Claim process — how the client triggers a warranty claim and receives payment
- Force majeure carve-outs — extraordinary events excluded from warranty coverage
The Ensuro Connection
Tier 2 and Tier 3 both flow through the same Ensuro Risk Module. The difference is commercial packaging, not risk architecture:
| Tier 2 — Warranty | Tier 3 — Derivative | |
|---|---|---|
| Packaging | Bundled into analytics subscription | Standalone derivative contract |
| Threshold | Lower (tighter tolerance) | Higher (catastrophic trigger) |
| Notional | Smaller | Larger |
| Client conversation | "Your analytics come with a performance guarantee" | "Here's a parametric derivative for your weather exposure" |
| Engine output | Same lossProb | Same lossProb |
| Ensuro premium decomposition | Same formula | Same formula |
| USDC pool backing | Same pool | Same pool |
Who It's For
Tier 2 is for clients who have validated the engine's accuracy during Tier 1 (or who are ready to commit immediately) and want financial skin in the game. Typical Tier 2 clients:
- Infrastructure developers who need to quantify weather delay risk in project finance models — and want a warranty that offsets actual delay costs
- Solar operators whose PPA performance depends on irradiance accuracy
- Any client whose internal risk committee requires a financial backstop, not just analytics