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Scenario Simulator

Interactive what-if modelling — drag a slider to see how weather severity translates to financial impact and protection.

The Scenario Simulator is the primary sales tool in the dashboard. It turns the abstract concept of weather risk into a concrete, interactive financial model.

How It Works

The client selects a project and drags a weather severity slider from mild to extreme. In real time, the dashboard shows:

  1. Delay days (or generation shortfall, yield reduction, etc.) — how many operational days are affected
  2. Gross cost impact — the unprotected financial exposure at that severity level
  3. Warranty credit recovery — what Tier 2 would pay back
  4. Derivative payout — what Tier 3 would pay
  5. Net exposure — what the client actually bears after protection

Protection Waterfall

The centrepiece of the simulator is the protection waterfall — a visual breakdown showing:

Unprotected cost (gross exposure)
  − Tier 2 warranty recovery
  − Tier 3 derivative payout
  = Net client exposure

This is the Tier 1 → Tier 2 → Tier 3 upgrade conversation in a single interactive panel. The client can see exactly what each tier of protection is worth at different severity levels.

Historical Context

The simulator overlays historical weather events at each project site — showing where past events would have fallen on the severity spectrum and what protection would have been worth.

This grounds the abstract probability in concrete experience: "In August 2024, your Jakarta site received 180mm in 5 days. At that severity, Tier 3 would have paid $340,000."

Data Provenance

Every scenario includes a full audit trail:

  • NWP data sources used
  • Bias correction parameters applied
  • Calibration methodology
  • Independent Data Sources for verification

This provenance chain is required for Tier 2 warranty verification under the MSA and provides the transparency that institutional clients require.

Use Cases

  • Pre-sale: Show a prospect the financial value of weather protection at their specific sites
  • Renewal: Demonstrate the value delivered during the current contract period
  • Upsell: Illustrate the incremental value of upgrading from Tier 2 to Tier 3
  • Risk committee: Provide the quantitative basis for internal approval of weather risk protection