What is Cliff Horizon?

Cliff Horizon is a weather intelligence engine that converts raw meteorological data into calibrated probability outputs and financial risk products.

We don't sell weather data. We don't sell weather forecasts. We sell weather risk protection — built on calibrated probability.

The Problem

Infrastructure developers, renewable energy operators, and agricultural businesses face weather-driven financial risk every day. A construction project delayed by unexpected rainfall. A solar farm underperforming its PPA because of persistent cloud cover. A wind farm missing generation targets during a low-wind season.

These risks are quantifiable — but the tools to quantify them don't exist in most markets. Weather models can predict conditions, but translating a forecast into a financial exposure requires calibrated probability, not point estimates.

The Gap We Fill

There is a measurable gap between what weather models can predict and what is genuinely random. That gap is quantifiable uncertainty. Cliff Horizon monetises that gap at three levels of commitment:

Tier 1 — Analytics

Calibrated probability outputs and risk scores. No performance guarantee. The relationship builder.

Tier 2 — Warranted Analytics

Same analytics, plus a cash-paying performance warranty backed by Ensuro. If we're wrong beyond an agreed tolerance, you get paid.

Tier 3 — Parametric Derivatives

Full parametric weather derivatives. Defined trigger, defined payout, settled automatically via oracle data. Ensuro provides counterparty capital.

Value Chain

Better calibrated probability forecasts
  → Better risk quantification
    → Better risk protection products

The prediction is the means, not the end.

How It Works

The engine processes three layers of data:

Layer	Source	What It Provides
Layer 3 — Meteorological	GFS, NAM, ECMWF (public NWP models)	Raw ensemble weather predictions
Layer 2 — Behavioural	Grid load data, demand signals	Orthogonal human-response signals that correlate with weather
Layer 1 — Satellite	SatSure Sparta	Proprietary satellite ground truth — soil moisture, vegetation, land surface temperature

These layers feed into a bias-correction and ensemble-weighting pipeline that produces calibrated probability distributions — not point forecasts.

When the engine says there's a 70% chance of an event, the event happens 70% of the time (±5%). That's calibration, and it's what makes the entire product stack possible.

Proving Ground

Cliff Horizon validates its calibration on ForecastEx — CFTC-regulated binary weather contracts traded via Interactive Brokers. This provides an auditable, money-at-stake track record against market consensus.

No competitor in the weather intelligence space has this. Climavision, Meteomatics, Xweather, and DTN publish backtests and case studies. Cliff Horizon has a live reliability diagram built from real trading.

Who It's For

Infrastructure

Construction weather delay risk — rainfall, heat stress, wind restrictions

Renewable Energy

Solar PPA shortfall, wind generation risk, irradiance forecasting

Agriculture

Crop yield protection, drought risk, excess rainfall cover

Utilities

Demand forecasting, peak load management, temperature-driven revenue hedging

Geographic Focus

Cliff Horizon targets markets where weather risk is most acute and most underserved: Southeast Asia, India, the Middle East, and Africa. These are regions where infrastructure investment is growing fastest, weather volatility has the greatest financial impact, and existing weather risk tools are weakest.

The engine is validated on US markets (ForecastEx) and deployed globally via SatSure's satellite coverage.